BRICS – facts and figures
The numbers of BRICS are already impressive in their current size. Looking at the countries that have formally applied for membership or expressed interest in joining, one can see the potential influence of this organization. – Analysis
Peter Hanseler/Denis Dobrin
Introduction
In the first part of this year’s BRICS series, we described the geopolitical environment in which BRICS is currently operating and trying to evolve. This environment has changed for the worse since the last BRICS summit in South Africa last August.
The consequence is that BRICS cannot develop freely, because on the one hand, the decisions – especially those of the USA – regarding the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the situation in the financial markets and finally the elections in the USA will have serious consequences for the whole world. On the other hand, the decisions of the BRICS regarding the admission of new members and the introduction of a currency (unlikely) or a payment and settlement system (likely) will also have a major impact on the overall geopolitical situation.
This article deals with the facts and figures of the current state of this organization, the figures including candidates for admission (BRICS+) and an outlook with figures including interested countries (BRICS++). In a subsequent article, we will cover the topic of a new currency and a new payment and settlement system.
BRICS current status
Preliminary remarks
In addition to the five founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia joined BRICS on January 1, 2024. Argentina and Saudi Arabia were also admitted. Argentina withdrew its membership . Saudi Arabia did not withdraw its accession, but has not yet signed the accession documents as it is obviously under great pressure from the USA. We have already discussed this in our article “Required reading:BRICS – the project of the century”. Saudi Arabia is a very good example of how the US actually views BRICS, namely as a major threat to its hegemony. Saudi Arabia is number 3 after Russia in terms of global oil production (11.9%). We have removed Saudi Arabia from the list of members and downgraded it to the list of candidates for membership.
Map
Figures
In our figures, we compare the BRICS with the G7 and the world as a whole to give you a feel for the ratios. The parameters we use are population, GDP (adjusted for purchasing power), oil production, gas production and gold production.
We show gross national product adjusted for purchasing power. Using the U.S. dollar as a measure of GDP distorts a country’s economic power: if you want to realistically measure financial strength, it makes a big difference whether a Big Mac costs twice as much in one place in U.S. dollars as it does in another. The so-called Big Mac Index is reason enough to use purchasing power adjusted figures when comparing GDP figures. The reason the Western media use the unadjusted figures is pure marketing to hide the devaluation of the US dollar and make it appear stronger than it is.
Graphs
Interim result
All factors show that the BRICS are far more powerful than the G7, and it seems incomprehensible that the West simply suppresses this fact. A look behind the scenes reveals facts that reinforce the impression of the bare numbers.
Classification of the numbers
Oil Production
The following additional facts should be considered when evaluating oil production figures:
First, while the U.S. is still the world’s largest oil producer, accounting for about 18% of global production, it is also the world’s largest consumer, consuming more than 20% of the world’s oil. This means that the U.S. is currently unable to even cover its own consumption. This fact alone is a compelling reason for the US to put pressure on Saudi Arabia, for example, to prevent it from joining BRICS.
Second, the major oil-producing members of BRICS have a great deal of influence or even control over OPEC. Since BRICS thus also controls OPEC and thus controls the price and distribution of a large part of oil, BRICS can be said to have an (indirect) monopoly position.
Third, the production cost of US oil is several times higher than the production cost in the BRICS countries.
Therefore, these factors further strengthen the BRICS’ power position with regard to oil.
Natural gas
With regard to natural gas, it should be noted that with Iran’s accession to BRICS, the two largest natural gas producers in the world are joint members of BRICS: Russia and Iran.
The largest non-BRICS gas producer is Qatar, which is (still) allied with the United States. BRICS is therefore also a real power center when it comes to natural gas.
Gold
Regarding gold, it is worth noting that China and Russia are the world’s #1 and #2 gold producers, respectively. I mention gold here because there is a good chance that gold will once again play an important role in future monetary systems – we will discuss this in the next article.
Further figures
According to statements by President Putin on October 18, 2024, which we discussed in our article “Four days until the opening of BRICS – two appointments of the Russian President in one day”, further figures on BRICS are important:
- BRICS accounts for 39% of the world’s industrial production, compared to just 31% for the G7.
- BRICS produces 44 percent of the world’s wheat, the G7 only 19 percent.
- The figures for rice are as follows: BRICS 54 percent, G7 2.4 percent.
- The figures for the production of important raw materials are as follows: BRICS produces 74 percent of aluminum, the G7 five percent. The figures for palladium are 77 to 7 in favor of BRICS.
Formal applications for admission – BRICS+
A major caveat
Due to the geopolitical situation described in Part 1, the BRICS and Russia, as this year’s chair, do not let us see their cards when it comes to the list of candidates. There are no official lists. My friend and partner Denis Dobrin has therefore painstakingly compiled the following list, which comes close to reality. There are also countries that wanted to join last year but withdrew their application. Algeria, for example, became a member of the BRICS Bank (NDB), but withdrew its application for formal BRICS membership in early October. So everything is in flux.
Candidates
Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cuba, Kuwait, Malaysia, Pakistan, Palestine, Senegal, Syria, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela and Belarus have formally requested accession.
Figures
Charts
BRICS will dominate waterways and commodities
Apart from the pure figures, which speak for themselves from the table and the charts, I would like to draw attention to the map. It is noticeable that BRICS members and candidate countries control many important trade routes. Malaysia, for example, controls the Strait of Malacca. This strait connects the Indian Ocean with the Pacific. 30% of all global trade goods pass through this strait. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through which 12% of global trade passes. The Strait of Hormuz transports 21% of the world’s oil and 20% of the world’s natural gas. We noted in the first article that BRICS is evolving from an economic association into a geopolitical entity. If you look at how BRICS will dominate the trade routes on the sea and at the same time dominate raw materials, you have to assume that the collective West under the leadership of the USA will really do everything it can to prevent or at least slow down this result. And we haven’t even talked about the shortest, fastest and cheapest sea route from Asia to Europe: The Northern Sea Route from Europe to the Far East.
The special case of Turkey
Turkey’s application for membership is a geopolitical thunderbolt, but one that must be put into perspective. Turkey is a NATO member and has by far the most powerful army in Europe. Turkey is also a so-called “dialogue partner” of the SCO. President Erdogan will travel to Kazan and have three separate face-to-face meetings with President Putin, President Xi, and President Modi. With NATO at war with Russia in Ukraine, I almost rule out the possibility of Turkey being accepted as a full member. Erdogan is under financial pressure – Turkey is not doing well – and he is known for mercilessly exploiting Turkey’s incredibly important geographic location on the Bosphorus in his dealings. He seems to be doing so again with this move. With his proximity to the BRICS and his talks with Putin, Xi and Modi, he is probably putting pressure on the West. The merciless trader Erdogan will probably use this coup to get something from the USA – my guess is money.
The group that has expressed interest in BRICS membership
Preliminary remarks
The following data sets can only be described as a rough glimpse into the crystal ball. The interest of many countries in joining BRICS is immense, but the geopolitical factors discussed in our previous article create an environment that can only be described as unpredictable. The following figures should therefore be seen as a rough guide to the future development of BRICS.
Map
Figures
Charts
Conclusion
BRICS increased its membership from five to ten (9) last August and already surpasses the G7 in all key parameters that define economic strength. We are pretty sure that not all formal applications will be considered next week in Kazan. In fact, I would not be at all surprised if no new full members are admitted at all, but a partner status is introduced instead of the new members being admitted immediately. An explosion in the number of members makes a great impression on paper, but it also creates immense logistical problems, given the number of reports that this organization is seeking cooperation from members, and the time and energy required to fully integrate the members admitted last August. Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov expressed this view in March 2024, mentioning the creation of a special category of “partners”.
It would be presumptuous to make any further predictions – we will know more on October 24.
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