Wolfgang Bittner: Geopolitical overview and outlook

US – Europe – Germany – Russia: An overview.

Wolfgang Bittner

Anyone dealing with the not exactly comfortable pre-war situation we find ourselves in today should at least know the geopolitical context we are dealing with in order to be able to have a part in the debate and help shape it. But it is no exaggeration to say that almost all German politicians, journalists and even scientists, who like to be called experts, currently lack this knowledge.

Basically, it can be said that for around 200 years, it has always been about the global dominance of the US and its exploitation of other countries. Knowing this explains almost all recent crises and wars, including the war in Ukraine and the threat to Germany and Europe, which has been brought about not only by the US, but paradoxically also by the states of the European Union, albeit under the aegis of the US.[1] Nothing about this is coincidental, everything is planned, often over long periods of time.

It remains to be seen whether Donald Trump’s presidency will bring about a genuine change in policy. Since Trump seems unpredictable, doubts are justified. However, the first positive aspect is the departure from the war policy of his predecessors Clinton, Obama Biden and their shadow governments. This has broken up encrusted structures and opened up real opportunities for the development of a new international security and peace architecture.

What does this mean for Germany? The German Reich has been the focus of Anglo-American imperial policy since it was founded in 1871. It is all verifiable. The former director of the influential think tank Stratfor, George Friedman, blurted this out in a speech in 2015 as follows: The United States’ main concern for more than a century has been Germany’s cooperation with Russia. According to Friedman, the US has done everything in its power to prevent this. Successfully, as we can see.

This brings us to the First World War. The history books continue to support the thesis of Germany’s sole responsibility. This is demonstrably false. As the recently opened archives show, the German Reich was maneuvered into the First World War by clever intrigues and alliances of its neighbors and driven to ruin in 1919 with the imposed Treaty of Versailles. When signing the treaty, French Marshal Ferdinand Foche said that it was a peace for twenty years. He was right. Without the enormous debt – due to reparations amounting to 269 billion gold marks[2] – and the systematic destabilization of the Weimar Republic, there would have been no National Socialist dictatorship and therefore no Second World War with an unconditional surrender. We see parallels to the present day.

The long-term strategy of the US

The book “The Only World Power – America’s Strategy of Supremacy”, published in 1997 by the Polish-American political scientist and long-time presidential advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski (1928-2017), provides some insight. The author writes with astonishing candor about securing the monopolistic claim of the US, which sees Europe as a chessboard on which it makes its moves. His comments on Ukraine expose why the US has worked to incorporate the second largest European country on Russia’s borders into its sphere of power: “Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical linchpin because its very existence as an independent state contributes to Russia’s transformation. Without Ukraine, Russia is no longer a Eurasian empire … However, if Moscow were to regain control of Ukraine, with its 52 million people, significant natural resources and access to the Black Sea, Russia would automatically gain the means to become a powerful empire spanning Europe and Asia.”[3] It is interesting that ‘significant natural resources’ are already mentioned here.

So much for the long-term strategy of the United States, which laid its hands on South America as early as 1823 with the Monroe Doctrine and was given blanket authorization by its President Theodore Roosevelt in 1904 to exercise “international police power” and uncompromising enforcement of economic and strategic interests. Roosevelt’s motto was: “Speak softly and carry a big stick; then you will go far.”[4] The fact that this “authorization” is still valid today has been proven by the blowing up of the Baltic Sea pipelines, but also by the current rigorous policies of Donald Trump.

Business instead of war

It is now obvious that the United States has been working towards regime change in Moscow right up to the present day: through discrimination, infiltration and also militarily. It must be remembered that this largest country in the world has enormous resources at its disposal. Attempts have long been made to open up Russia to the economic and geostrategic goals of the West. Under Boris Yeltsin, it had already degenerated into prey once, but Vladimir Putin put a stop to this at the time, making him the US’s number one enemy.

Now Donald Trump is in government, and he obviously has no intention of going to war with Russia; rather, he wants to do business on the most favorable terms possible, which could be achieved using tried and tested methods such as threats, blackmail and sanctions. Accordingly, Trump has laid claim to Ukraine’s natural resources. In doing so, he wants – among other things – to recoup the billions spent by the US on the war in Ukraine.

But this is nothing new. Some neocons and warmongers in Washington have long seen these “investments” as a win-win situation. On June 10, 2024, prominent US Senator Lindsey Graham said in an interview on US broadcaster CBS: “They’re sitting on 10 to 12 trillion dollars of critical minerals in Ukraine. I don’t want to give Putin that money and those assets to share with China.”[5] It remains to be seen to what extent Russia, which until recently was to be defeated and denationalized for strategic and economic reasons, will accommodate the Trump administration.

It can therefore be assumed that Trump will continue the policy of containing Russia (and at the same time encircling China) in a different way, but not as obviously as his predecessors and – it is still to be hoped – without war. However, some European states, and Germany at the forefront, could bring this about out of political blindness and ideological confusion. It is hard to imagine what this would mean for the European population.

Germany facing ruin

It is becoming increasingly apparent that Europe is being ruined and eliminated as a competitor to the US. The US economy, which was on the verge of collapse, is gradually recovering, while German industry in particular is shrinking visibly and many companies are emigrating or going bankrupt. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was briefed in Washington, Economics Minister Robert Habeck wanted to take over the leadership role in Europe after a meeting with Joseph Biden, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wanted to ruin Russia in agreement with Joseph Biden and defeat it in war. The successors are carrying on for the time being, although the situation has changed fundamentally. It is possible that the Biden faction is still strong enough in the background to exert influence.

They deliberately overlook the fact that Russia cannot be defeated in war because it is a nuclear power. Should its existence be threatened, it would use nuclear weapons, and that would be the downfall of contemporary civilization. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized no more and no less, but this has been maliciously interpreted as aggression.

After the US set fire to Russia’s doorstep in 2014 using Kiev’s Ukraine, Germany was increasingly drawn into the Ukraine conflict and was given an unbelievable amount of money and benefits in kind. The attitude of Berlin’s politicians was and is hard to beat in terms of incompetence; they were highly culpable. The US strategy was open and could have been known to German politicians and journalists if they were interested in geopolitical contexts.

The enemy state clause

It is hardly known that Germany is still an enemy state of the opponents of the Second World War according to the so-called enemy state clause in Articles 53 and 107 of the UN Charter.[6] The clause states that coercive measures could be imposed without special authorization by the UN Security Council, which includes military interventions if Germany were to pursue an aggressive policy again. What this means is open to wide interpretation.

It is debated whether Germany’s membership of the United Nations has rendered the enemy state rule resulting from the aforementioned articles obsolete,[7] but if this were the case, these provisions could have been deleted long ago. Although Germany was granted full sovereignty in the 1990 Unification Treaty, the Two Plus Four Treaty, this assurance was restricted again by additional treaties, for example the troop deployment agreement, the military alliance for “permanent structured cooperation” (PESCO)[8] and military and economic agreements.

In a state of unconditional surrender

Since the Two Plus Four Treaty of 1990 is not a peace treaty, as is sometimes erroneously assumed, the Federal Republic of Germany, as a subject of international law[9] identical to the German Reich, is still in the status of unconditional surrender. [10] The victorious powers of the time, who forced this submission and thus the complete occupation of Germany in 1945, are still present, Germany is under the curatorship of the US and under the latent observation of Great Britain and France, even if many do not want to admit it. 11] The US maintains eleven large military bases with around 35,000 soldiers and nuclear weapons on German territory.

If you consider this fact in light of the current precarious geopolitical situation, much becomes clearer: Washington has considerable opportunities to exert pressure and influence decisions made by the German government. Under the Biden administration, this could be observed constantly, for example with the blowing up of the Baltic Sea pipelines, the unlimited support for Ukraine and the devastating policy of aggression towards Russia.

Although the UN Charter’s principle of peace claims general validity, it has been repeatedly violated in recent years, especially by the US, which has long since forfeited the right to invoke human rights and the defense of democratic freedoms due to its policy of intervention in violation of international law and numerous crimes.

It can be assumed that neither the US nor the UK have any interest in annulling the enemy states clause of the UN Charter; the opposite seems to be the case. The same applies to a peace treaty. This was allegedly waived in 1990 because considerable reparations would then have been due. But that would hardly have been an obstacle, as the Berlin government was constantly distributing and squandering millions and billions anyway. The opportunities to create orderly conditions for the future were not seized.

Since 1945, Germany has been under curatorship in a permanent state of emergency. It is high time to end this tutelage. The most important goals of a sensible policy for Germany must be:

– Withdrawal from NATO, which has long been in breach of its own statutes

– Termination of foreign military deployments on German territory

– Resumption of cheap gas supplies from Russia

– Cessation of arms deliveries, especially to warring parties

– Resumption of normal relations with countries with which relations are currently disturbed.

The EU offside

The election of Donald Trump as President of the US has brought about a fundamental change in the strategic and peace policy situation. On February 12, 2025, Trump spoke to Putin on the phone without consulting his European allies, who were not mentioned at all, and declared: “We have agreed to work very closely together and also to visit each other’s nations.”[12] This was followed by the public dismantling of the Ukrainian ruler Zelenskyi, who had previously been called a dictator by Trump during his visit to the White House on February 28, 2025, celebrated by the so-called Western values as a defender of freedom.[13]

This direction was already apparent in an interview that Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave to journalist Megyn Kelly on January 30, 2025. He said that unipolarity in the world was unnatural and that a return to a multipolar world was inevitable.[14] From this he concluded: “Where our interests coincide, partnerships and alliances emerge. Where our differences prevail, it is the task of diplomacy to prevent conflict while promoting our national interests and understanding that others are also pursuing their own interests.”

A speech by US Vice President James Vance on February 14, 2025 at the Munich Security Conference also brought movement into the encrusted structures of an absolutely inhumane policy. In his opinion, Europe has turned its back on some of the fundamental values it shares with the United States: Freedom of speech and alternative points of view were being suppressed. Vance emphasized: “We have to do more than just talk about democratic values, we have to live them.”[15] At the same time, he opposed the policies of the Biden administration.

But Vance was met with a storm of indignation, which is typical of the situation in Western Europe. The politicians in charge have not realized that the policy shift initiated by Donald Trump has opened up a window of opportunity that should be exploited. It looks like the European Union, led by Germany and England, wants to continue the policy of sanctions and aggression imposed by the Obama and Biden administrations without backing from Washington, while the US and Russia will cooperate and do business in the future. Apart from the fact that the EU is thus moving into the shadow of a future policy of understanding, i.e. into the absolute offside with the danger of a third world war, this will soon have serious consequences – economically, socially and culturally – for the affected population.

Outlook

Globally, we are facing the end of the imperial rules-based order and the realization of new socio-political ideas based on humanity and the equality of people and peoples, in other words, on the principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter. Regardless of how the policies of the new US administration under Trump proceed, many states in the Global South, including Russia, China and India, will no longer put up with paternalism and oppression from the US, regardless of who is president, and that is the vast majority of the world’s population.

It now remains to be seen how the autocrat Trump, who is ultimately not to be trusted, will proceed. It cannot be ignored that he is considering rigorous measures contrary to international law, for example punishing the BRICS states and annexing Canada, Greenland and Panama,[16] he has not lifted the sanctions, he is introducing high import tariffs and he is demanding that the European NATO states increase their defense spending to five percent of GDP, which would not be possible without significant cuts in the budgets for social welfare, education, culture, science, etc.

But the Ukraine issue is developing rapidly. For example, the US wants to sign an agreement with Ukraine on the development of raw materials[17], with half of the proceeds going into a joint fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, the agreement was not signed because Zelensky demanded security guarantees for Ukraine, which Trump refused to provide. Putin also made a proposal for the use of natural resources in partnership with the US[18]. However, it is unclear how this cooperation will take shape, for whom it will pay off and whether Ukraine will end up with the status of a colony of the US that the Biden administration is already seeking.

Whether the politicians in Berlin will gradually muster the insight and sense to seize the opportunity offered to them for a change of policy in the German interest is currently not foreseeable. The agitation and aggression against Russia is still continuing in politics and the media. Despite everything, however, it should be noted that the extra-parliamentary opposition in Germany in particular, whose criticism of Berlin’s policies is reflected to some extent in Trump’s and Vance’s speeches, has been strengthened.

Quellen und Anmerkungen

[1] Wolfgang Bittner, “Der neue West-Ost-Konflikt”, Verlag zeitgeist 2019, p. 197 ff.

[2] This corresponded to around 100,000 tons of gold. By comparison, in mid-2020 the gold reserves of the US amounted to 8133 tons, Russia to 2300 tons and Germany to 3362 tons. Cf. www.gold.de/goldreserven/

[3] Ibid. S. 199

[4] Cf. Theodore Roosevelt: The Austere Life. Essays and Addresses, New York 1906, and Theodore Roosevelt typed letter signed as governor of New York, 26.1.1900; https://historical.ha.com/itm/autographs/u.s.-presidents/theodore-roosevelt-typed-letter-signed-as-governor-of-new-york-two-pages-9-x-115-albany-new-york-january-26-190/a/6054-34087.s

[5] Cf. www. youtube.com/watch?v=YS1s8GN77h0 (25.2.2025)

[6] Article 77, which deals with the international trusteeship system and corresponding trust territories, became obsolete after Germany’s accession to the UN in accordance with Article 78.

[7] Cf. General Assembly Resolution 49/58 of 9.12.1994. Cf. also www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/484610/dc5a3c061feef095da5885a52b92134c/WD-2-147-07-pdf-data.pdf; Ress/Bröhmer in: Simma/Khan/Nolte/Paulus (eds.): The Charter of the United Nations, Vol. II. Oxford 2012, Art. 107, para. 21; Ipsen (ed.): Völkerrecht. Munich 2014, § 6, para. 131

[8] Cf. Spiegel Online, 13.11.2017, www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/bruessel-23-eu-staaten-gruenden-pesco-zusammenarbeit-bei-verteidigung-a-1177685.html

[9] Cf. www. bundestag.de/webarchiv/presse/hib/2015_06/380964-380964

[10] The Russian Federation is now making serious efforts to terminate the Two Plus Four Treaty – with unpredictable consequences, reports independent journalist Mark Hegewald in his Markmobil format (https://t.me/MARKmobil/3456). Germany is in breach of the treaty with the planned deployment of US missiles at the latest. Russia had already classified Germany as “unfriendly” in March 2022.

[11] The complexity of the legal situation can be seen in a report by the Bundestag’s Scientific Service: www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/579362/47b6ac2d55fcb4c12dfcce3cedc0e7d0/WD-2-149-07-pdf-data.pdf

[12] Cf. www. zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/trump-putin-telefonat-verhandlungen-ukraine-krieg-russland-100.html

[13] www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXXS4kv2fM8, from min. 41:50 (1.3.2025)

[14] Cf. https://rtde. org/kurzclips/video/235622-us-aussenminister-unipolare-welt-ist/

[15] Cited as www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOGr0p7PJD0, min. 8-27 (25.2.2025)

[16] Cf. www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/groenland-daenemark-unabhaengigkeit-usa-trump-100.html

[17] Cf. www. deutschlandfunk.de/was-das-abkommen-zwischen-usa-und-ukraine-vorsieht-und-ueber-welche-rohstoffe-das-land-verfuegt-100.html

[18] Cf. https://rtde. org/international/237973-normalisierung-zwischen-washington-und-moskau/