The Empire Strikes Back

The situation in and around Syria is chaotic and likely to destroy the last shred of balance in geopolitics. An overview, sorted by actor.

Peter Hanseler

Introduction

The fall of Assad is the fall of an entire country and its population. Those who now control Syria do not form a coherent unit. There is a great danger that the various groups will fight each other. A second Libya seems likely. On the surface, Israel and Turkey are the big winners, but the US empire also wins because the interests of Russia, Iran and China have been severely damaged. The fact that Israel is implementing its Greater Israel plans undisturbed and with the support of the West does not seem to bother anyone in the West. President Erdogan has dropped his mask. This will have long-term consequences.

In this article, we try to categorize the surprising developments, with the major caveat that everything could change again tomorrow.

The fate of Assad

Syria – once an economically sound country

After the fall of Gaddafi in Libya in 2011, Syria was the only economically prosperous country in the Middle East, with an impressive annual economic growth rate of between 5% and 9%. Shortly after the fall of Libya, the Americans turned their attention to Syria – we will discuss the reasons for this below. It took a long time, but it has now become a reality.

Becoming a dictator was not Assad’s career plan.

President Assad was not his father’s first choice as successor and he was happy about it. He studied medicine in Syria and then moved to the UK to pursue his career as an ophthalmologist. It was only because of his brother’s death that he was pushed into a role he never sought and for which he was not predestined personally and educationally. These circumstances most likely had a significant influence on the events of the last few days.

The Western media are firmly convinced that Assad was a butcher who oppressed his own people, lived the high life at the expense of his own people, and that things would now get better. Assad was a second-generation dictator and he lived and ruled like one. Whether Assad was a do-gooder or not is not the issue here. The issue at hand is a country as a geopolitical factor in the Middle East, whose overthrow of the government has led to more instability. If you look at the history of dictators overthrown by the US and the consequences for the countries concerned, the chances of the people being better off are extremely slim. Saddam Hussein and Muammar al-Gaddafi were dictators who were overthrown. The result and the consequences for the population were disastrous.

The reason for the “civil war” of 2011 – competing pipelines

At the latest since Halford Mackinder and his Heartland Theory of 1904, Syria was in the sights of the British and then the Americans (see our article “Anglo-Saxon geopolitical strategy – unchanged for 120 years”). In 2006, US General Wesley Clark vividly described the US plans in the fall of 2001: the plan was to invade and destroy seven countries in five years, including Syria (video in our article: “Bloodbaths Change the World – Part 2 – 9/11”).

So much for the USA’s long-term strategy. The conquests largely failed, but the destruction in the countries concerned had the desired effect. The countries concerned were subsequently unable to develop, either together or individually, in such a way that they could exert their own power in the region.

The immediate cause of the civil war that began in 2011 was by no means the Americans and others wanting to free the Syrian people from a dictator. The reason was banal: in addition to the aforementioned reasons, it was also about a pipeline that would run from Qatar, among other places, through Syria. This project was not in the interest of the Russians and Iranians. Therefore, Assad was against this project. Assad favored the Iran pipeline, which also ran through Syria, but from Iran.

Assad favored the Iran pipeline, which also ran through Syria, but from Iran.

The civil war was thus optimally aligned with the long- and short-term interests of the United States.

No chance without help from Iran and Russia

Assad had great difficulty in getting the “civil war” staged by the USA from 2011 under any kind of control. It was only after Iran came to his aid in 2014 and Russia in 2015 that he was able to turn the tide of the war for the time being. Iran sent many well-trained soldiers and Russia mainly provided air support and some special forces.

After achieving a delicate peace, the Americans did not even think about leaving the country, but kept a small contingent of soldiers in the northeast occupied the most valuable part of the country with the help of terrorists. Assad did not have the strength to expel the Americans from the country.

The Turks took a similar approach in the north of the country. They also remained in the country under flimsy justifications. The Idlib zone in particular was the work of the Turks. The Turks committed themselves to peacekeeping, which they did not do, and the Russians let Erdogan do as he pleased. This has now turned out to be a mistake.

The result was a “peace” that was built on sand and was permanently kept in a fragile state by continuous air strikes by Israel.

Thus, Assad’s fall was foreseeable and only the speed of it came as a surprise. Some sources claim that Assad – also due to his wife’s cancer – was personally no longer able or willing to continue and had informed the Russians of this some time ago. He had been willing to relinquish power in an orderly manner for some time before the attack. These plans have now been rendered obsolete.

Greater Israel – a project well on its way

On October 7, 2023, Israel took advantage of Hamas’ attack on Israel to implement a plan, in existence since Ben Gurion, to create Greater Israel. It did so with the open support of the United States and broad support from politicians and the media throughout the West.

In the choice of measures for this implementation, no limits were imposed on Israel by the West. Only in this way can the use of genocide in Gaza be explained. The entire Western media – with the exception of a few blogs – endorsed genocide as an acceptable way to achieve Israeli goals and trivialized it as Israel’s alleged self-defense. Decisions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, the most important judicial organ of the United Nations and the ICC – the International Criminal Court – are succinctly dismissed by the entire collective West, and statements that are directed against the genocide are reflexively labeled as anti-Semitism. (see our article from February 2024: “International Court of Justice launches nuclear strike against Israel”).

When we wrote last December that in the Israeli catchphrase “From the river to the sea”, the word “river” does not refer to the Jordan River, but to the Euphrates River in Iraq, we were dismissed as conspiracy theorists.

We did not have to wait long for our statements to be confirmed, and it came from the highest Israeli government office in the person of Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli Minister of Finance, who publicly stated the following in October 2024:

“I want a Jewish state that includes Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.”

Finanzminister Bezalel Smotrich

This statement was also dismissed as the isolated voice of someone who should not be taken seriously.

Now the map of Greater Israel adorns the soldiers of the Holy Land. From conspiracy theory to practice.

Israel has thus achieved a remarkable success, and in several ways: (1) Syria no longer exists as a state. (2) For the time being, Israel has a free hand in southern Syria to implement its territorial plans for a Greater Israel. (3) Furthermore, Iran will no longer be able to support Hezbollah in the same way, which poses an existential threat to Lebanon.

Most experts perceived the ceasefire in Lebanon that was agreed a few days ago as a sign of weakness on Israel’s part in its campaign in Lebanon. In fact, as in 2006, Israel did not manage to make any significant progress in this operation due to the well-equipped Hezbollah troops. The Israeli losses were considerable.

Now it is quite realistic that Israel will succeed in conquering Lebanon, because without Hezbollah, Lebanon, which has no significant armed forces and whose supply of military equipment and other things has been cut off, is defenseless against the enemy.

Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are next on Israel’s menu.

It is a fact that Israel would never have been able to implement this plan without the Turks, but the result remains the same: a major success for Israel.

If you look at the map of “Greater Israel”, the next addresses of this expansion really have something to worry about: Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are next on Israel’s menu.

Erdogan’s multi-layered betrayal

Mr Erdogan wants to dance at all the weddings.

Turkey’s behavior in connection with the conquest of Syria is extremely problematic. The fundamental problem with Erdogan’s geopolitical behavior is that he wants to be at all the right weddings and funerals. Erdogan faced harsh criticism from Russian presidential adviser Anton Kobyakov at a press conference in Kazan on October 24, 2024, when Kobyakov pointed out precisely this fact:

“Turkey wants a lot of things. It wants to join the EU, it wants to join BRICS. I would suggest that Turkey join the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union]. This is a good path. This is the path that Russia and Belarus have taken, forming a union state – that would be honest. The leaders of BRICS will make a decision.

It seems to me that joining this “common choir”, our community, requires more coordination. Each country within BRICS has a certain specialization. On this basis, Turkey would certainly have a place, provided that it does not play the card of the Ottoman Empire, on which, for example, the city of Kazan also appears.”

Anton Kobyakov, 24. Oktober 2024

Turkey was on the list for partnership in the BRICS community the following day. However, we added a caveat to this list in October as follows:

“when Yuri Ushakov, President Putin’s personal aide, announced that the BRICS leadership had given the green light for 13 states to be accepted as partners, without mentioning their names, as the extent of their readiness for full membership or another BRICS status needs to be discussed with them.”

Yuri Ushakov, President Putin’s personal aide

At the time, we found the appearance of Turkey on the list somewhat surprising. However, maybe the Russians correctly assessed President Erdogan. It is a fact that Turkey has not yet been formally announced as a partner. It will be interesting, how Russia will deal with this issue. On December 13, Bolivia and Cuba were named as new partners – no mention of Turkey. Maybe, BRICS will react faster than Mr. Erdogan would have expected.

Erdogan betrays the Palestinians

Since Israel’s incursion into the Gaza Strip, Turkey has not let up in its verbal attacks on Israel and, in particular, on Netanyahu. He has not shied away from comparisons to Hitler or accusations of genocide.

At the same time, Erdogan presented Turkey, and especially himself, as the leading Islamic nation, as a friend and protective power of the Palestinians, as here in his speech to the UN General Assembly on September 24, 2024:

„I call out the United Nations Security Council, what are you waiting for to prevent the Gaza genocide and to stop this oppression and barbarism? What are you waiting for to stop the massacre network that endangers the lives of Palestinian people and its own citizens and drags the entire region into war for its political gain.” 

In the same speech, he personally attacked the Israeli Prime Minister:

“Just as an alliance of humanity stopped Hitler 70 years ago, Netanyahu and his network of murderers must be stopped by an alliance of humanity.”

Turkey did not provide any assistance to Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank. In light of current events, it is clear that the countless anti-Israel speeches were merely marketing events for the Muslim population – nothing more.

Israel becomes Turkey’s partner

All the while Erdogan was playing the outraged party, he was guaranteeing Israel an uninterrupted supply of oil from Azerbaijan, which is delivered to Israel by Turkey in tankers. At the same time, he had been preparing a similar deal for months to supply Israel with gas from the same country.

So Turkey did have options available to it to back up Erdogan’s speech at the UN with action.

Instead, the Turks and the Israelis meticulously prepared the attack from Idlib in Syria. The intelligence services of both countries coordinated the logistics, supplying the jihadists of all possible provenances in the Turkish-controlled Idlib with weapons and information. The coordination went so far that both sides coordinated the timing of the attack to the day: one day after the ceasefire verbally agreed between Israel and the Lebanese government.

Erdogan betrays Syria

Since the jihadist invasion of Syria organized by the United States in 2012, Turkey allowed the transport of weapons in WFP trucks, the UN World Food Program. Turkey was therefore directly involved in the war on the side of the terrorists.

In 2024, it supported the terrorists living under its supervision in Idlib, together with the United States and Israel, with financial support from Qatar. There they were reorganized, given military training and logistical support.

Turkey repeatedly asserted its territorial claims against Syria with the argument of creating a security zone against Kurdish attacks. Lately, Erdogan has been trying to somehow give his territorial demands a legal veneer by cooperating with Assad. However, Damascus strongly opposed the stationing of Turkish troops on Syrian territory, regardless of the pretext.

Erdogan betrays Russia

As Russia and Syrian government forces pushed the jihadists further and further back in 2017/18, Russia agreed with the Syrian government and Turkey to create several retreat centers for terrorists who no longer wanted to fight. By offering them a real civilian perspective, the aim was to isolate the fighters from the fighting in a controlled manner.

Those who turned up there with weapons had two options: either hand in their weapons and gradually reintegrate into civilian life, or “resettle” in Idlib province with their light weapons.

With Russia’s consent, Turkey operated Idlib province as a huge retreat center for tens of thousands of jihadists and their families. In doing so, it explicitly assumed responsibility for their disarmament and reintegration into civilian life.

While the retreat centers under Russian-Syrian control fulfilled their tasks, Turkey had no interest in disbanding these jihadist structures, nor even in disarming them. Thus, despite repeated protests from Russia and Syria, these forces were able to reorganize and “unfirm” themselves repeatedly, under the protection of Turkey and other Western states, in order to “cover up” their terrorist tracks.

Thus, the province of Idlib remained a concentration point for terrorists, from which the West could draw personnel, whether for terrorist actions in Africa, Central Asia or repeatedly in Syria.

At the time the retreat centers were created, Russia had the strategic initiative. It seemed that, together with the Syrian troops, it was able to destroy the terrorist forces.

With the probably against better knowledge and thus politically motivated horse-trading with a Turkish leader generally known as unreliable, Russia played into the hands of Turkey and the West as a whole. The basis for Russia’s current betrayal by Turkey. Another bitter lesson.

Nursed by the West, this “Idlibstan” has become a reorganized Islamist force in recent months, which then swept away the Syrian state within a week.

Turkey also betrays Iran

With the overthrow of Assad in Syria, with Israel controlling all routes into Lebanon and with various Islamist groups streaming out of Idlib, Iran lost its land bridge to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Turkey bears the main responsibility for this too. Without the jihadists stationed and reorganized in Idlib, such a development would have been unthinkable.

This has done enormous damage to the relations between Iran and Turkey, which have been painstakingly built up over the past few years.

Turkey, a (potential) BRICS partner, betrays BRICS

The destruction of Syria as a state is the first conflict in which BRICS states find themselves on different sides of the front. On the one hand, there is the (potential) BRICS partner Turkey, as a supporter of archaic ideas of civilization; on the other hand, there are the full BRICS members Russia and Iran, as states directly and indirectly affected by the Turkish betrayal. And it can get even more awkward. Because the BRICS member Egypt can also be drawn into the maelstrom of events. As well as Saudi Arabia. However, the latter is not yet a member or partner of BRICS.

The founding member of BRICS, China, is also indirectly affected. It depends existentially on the supply of energy sources from the region. Therefore, it had very ambitious economic plans there, which the war in the Middle East largely makes impossible.

Turkey has a privileged strategic geographic position at the crossroads between Asia and Europe, including control of an important sea route, the Bosporus. It can be assumed that some of Erdogan’s highly provocative appearances, views and actions can be traced back to this exclusive position.

It seems that he has now overstepped a line that even traditionally extremely patient states such as Russia and China will not, cannot, accept for their own sake. The cup seems to be full.

The role of the USA

Wherever a country on this planet is set on fire, the Americans are there, and for several years now, they have been there indirectly. Others die for the hegemon. This time, the Americans have excelled themselves in their choice of executive: Abu Mohammed al-Golani could become the face of Syria after Assad. The US government offered a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to his identification or location. This reward was offered as part of the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice program. However, the search query on the corresponding site no longer returns any results. Al-Golani’s force is called “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” after a rebranding, previously Al Nusra, previously Al-Qaeda, thus those terrorists who, according to the US, were responsible for 9/11.

Of course, al-Golani presented himself as a moderate a few days ago. There is no need to worry about slaughter. Those who like it gory can see what is currently happening in Damascus. Heads are being cut off and people are being executed (see, for example, “Extremist Groups Carry Out Revenge, Sectarian Killings In HTS-Controlled Syria” on ZeroHedge).

There is a good chance that war-torn Syria will be completely destroyed. The price for the long-term strategy of the USA is once again paid by millions of civilians. The Americans accept this with a smile, because they have achieved their goals – as always in the short term – several times over: (1) Russia’s interests have been weakened. (2) Iran has been weakened. (3) The Israelis have made good progress in implementing their “Greater Israel” plan. (4) President Erdogan will be grateful to the US and will move away from Russia and BRICS – of course only until the moment when the Sultan pulls the US over the coals again.

Conclusion

The situation is more than confusing due to the many actors and their sometimes diverging interests, but one thing can be said with certainty: the empire has struck back, another country is completely destroyed and the biggest loser is the population of this former jewel in the Middle East, which has been victimized for 12 years.

Both Israel and Turkey have already carved out prime slices in the north and south. At some point, Erdogan and Netanyahu will find themselves at the negotiating table: Monty Python would have enjoyed it if it hadn’t been so tragic.

Russia and Iran, but also China, are the big geopolitical losers. Russia is silent, working on countermeasures and focusing on Ukraine. They keep Erdogan’s behavior in the back of their minds. It is not in Russia’s interest to break off relations with Turkey or go to war with it. Russia condemns the Israelis’ genocidal behavior against the Palestinians, but here too Russia keeps its composure.

Iran and Russia have probably decided together not to intervene in Syria; in doing so, they have prevented even more bloodshed. China will have to write off its substantial investments in Syria.

However, the big losers are also the people in the West who consume mass media. The reporting is taking on ever more grotesque forms: Liberation of the Syrian population: “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz described Assad’s overthrow as ‘good news’”. At the same time, it is earnestly claimed that Israel’s incursion into Syria is “for security reasons” and that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine is pure “aggression”. It remains to be seen how long it will take for the majority of Western media consumers to realize that something is amiss.

In the medium term, the Syrian case will lead to the Global South standing closer together. Pepe Escobar ended his article this week, “The Syrian Tragedy and the New Omni-War”, with the following sentence addressed to BRICS: “You cannot defeat a ruthless hegemonic Hydra with flower power.”

BRICS – especially Russia and China – have long been characterized by a Zen-Buddhist-like restraint vis-à-vis the collective West.

In our view, it would be easy for these two giants to deliver a non-kinetic blow to the West, because Western financial markets are hanging by a thread and are reaching new highs, as greed, when indulged as it is at present, is quite capable of completely severing the cables to the pigeon-brained players. Whether the exchange of blows will shift to the financial markets remains to be seen.

A cold-blooded observer of geopolitics can justifiably claim: “This is going to be exciting.”